[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 13 issued 2335 UT on 15 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 16 09:35:12 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed, only two
low level C-class events from AR1818(S07W03) and 1817(S21W27.These
two regions are declining, other numbered regions on the visible
solar disk appear stable. Solar activity is expected to be Low
16 August, with the chance of an isolated M-class flare. Further
analysis of the disappearing solar filament reported yesterday
(~1900UT 14 August)in the south west quadrant is not expected
to be geoeffective. A weak CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO
after ~1030UT. Analysis of this event is ongoing. Solar wind
speed increased steadily throughout the day under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream, peaking at just over 600km/s at
the time of reporting. This was associated with some moderate
(+/-7nT)fluctuations in IMF Bz. There was a mild southward bias
(-5nT) between 0700-1000UT and a brief southward excussion up
to -10nT ~1500UT. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly
over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Unsettled with
one isolated Active period.
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 22232412
Cocos Island 7 22222312
Darwin 11 22232423
Townsville 10 22232422
Learmonth 9 22222412
Alice Springs 10 22232412
Norfolk Island 11 22432312
Culgoora 10 22232412
Gingin 12 32232423
Camden 10 22232412
Canberra 8 22232312
Hobart 11 22332422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 21 32453522
Casey 14 34332323
Mawson 26 44343316
Davis 21 33432226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 4420 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 14 Unsettled
17 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Unsettled throughout
the day with an isolated Active period observed at most IPS stations
~~1700UTUT most likely in response to a brief IMF Bz southward
excussion after 1500UT. Isolated Minor storm intervals were observed
at high latitudes. The enhanced activity was a result of the
fast coronal hole wind stream. Expect continuing Unsettled to
occasionally Active day one, gradually declining to mostly Quiet
by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
at most locations with the daily T index slightly above predicted
monthly average. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 94200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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