[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 13 issued 2333 UT on 13 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 14 09:33:29 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low with several C-class flares predominantly
from AR1809(west limb). AR1818(S07 E24) and AR1817( S23 W03),
the most complex regions currently on the sun, have increased
in area and magnetic complexity over the period. AR1817 is now
a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class but has been quiet so far.
M class X-ray flares can be expected from these regions, with
a slight chance of isolated X class flares over the forecast
period. No likely geo-effective CMEs observed in the available
STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery. Solar wind speed was steady
in the 350km/s range until ~1300UT, after which it has increased
around 440km/s. The IMF Bz has trended southwards since 1300UT
and oscillated within +5 to -10nT. Solar wind speed is likely
to increase late on 14 August due to coronal hole which will
be in a geoeffective position 14-15 August. Recurrence suggests
solar wind speed may reach over 590km/s and geoeffectiveness
will largely depend on IMF Bz orientation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 21121312
Cocos Island 5 21121212
Darwin 6 21121322
Townsville 6 21121322
Learmonth 7 21122322
Alice Springs 5 20121312
Norfolk Island 4 21011221
Culgoora 6 21121312
Gingin 6 21111322
Camden 6 20122312
Canberra 2 10011211
Hobart 5 20022311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 10033311
Casey 7 21212223
Mawson 12 41113324
Davis 11 51222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2000 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Aug 18 Active
16 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed over the last
24 hours, with an isolated Unsettled period after ~1300UT in
response to a period of sustained southwards IMF. Quiet-Unsettled
conditions expected for the early part of 14 August. A recurrent
coronal hole should become geo-effective later on 14 August and
may produce Active conditions with Minor Storm periods at high
latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream due 14-15August may cause disturbed conditions.
Possible SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Depressed conditions
for IPS low latitude stations during local night. These conditions
are expected to prevail for most of 14 August. Increased geomagnetic
activity anticipated from late 14 August with possible MUF depressions
of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 36900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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