[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 13 issued 2352 UT on 11 Aug 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 12 09:52:34 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with notable 
C-class activity from regions 1817 and 1818. Region 1817 maximum 
was a C2.1 flare at 1932UT and region 1818 maximum was a C8.4 
flare at 2158UT. Both regions have grown in sunspot size over 
the last 24 hours. Activity is expected to be Low for the next 
3 days with further C-class flares and the chance of M-class 
events. Solar wind speed gradually declined from 450km/s at 00UT 
to be ~360km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between 
+/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase from the 14Aug 
as a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole 
moves into geoeffective position.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110101
      Cocos Island         2   12110000
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           4   22111102
      Learmonth            2   21110101
      Alice Springs        2   11110101
      Norfolk Island       1   11010010
      Culgoora             2   11110101
      Gingin               2   11110101
      Camden               2   11110101
      Canberra             1   11010101
      Hobart               2   11120100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   01020000
      Casey                6   33210111
      Mawson               9   12223114
      Davis                5   12322100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2222 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     5    Quiet
13 Aug     5    Quiet
14 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days. Possible Unsettled 
to Active periods for 14Aug due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Depressed MUF's observed for mid and low latitudes. 
Normal HF conditions for high latitudes with occasional disturbed 
periods. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for all regions 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      83
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed MUF's observed for Northern AUS and Equatorial 
regions. Normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic 
regions. MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values for 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    81600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list