[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 3 09:30:37 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day Aug 02.
AR 1809 (N12E44) showed some growth and an emerging trailing
spot group. Solar wind parameters remained nominal as the anticipated
coronal hole wind stream has not yet arrived. Solar wind parameters
are expected to become enhanced day one, declining by day three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 -1100000
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 2 11000112
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Culgoora 0 01000001
Gingin 0 10000100
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 00000110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 22200121
Mawson 3 13100012
Davis 2 01211010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1200 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 12 Unsettled. Chance Active periods.
04 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes.
The anticipated coronal hole wind stream has not yet arrived.
Conditions are expected to become Unsettled due to onset of this
stream on day one. Unsettled to occasionally Active conditions
likely to persist into day two of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced to 50% 08-14UT. Depressed 15-30%
16-23UT. Sporadic-E around local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 15% 06-07, 15-17UT. Otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced 15% before local dawn Aug 03.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with variable conditions observed generally Equatorial/Aus regions.
Minor degradations possible next three days Antarctic/S Aus/NZ
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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