[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 30 09:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Several C-class flares from regions 1730,1731,1732 and
1733 with the largest a C5.9 from 1730 but the other regions
being more prolific with number of C flares. Numerous type III
radio bursts were observed in association with the x-ray flares.
AR1731 is the largest at over 400 millionths of the disc and
is currently stable in size. Solar wind speed declined from 420km/s
to 360km/s although density increased which would have somewhat
offset a decline in solar wind pressure on the geomagnetic field.
Interplanetary Magnetic Field north-south magnetic polarity was
oscillating in the neutral +/- 5nT area with no large merging
events with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 5 22112112
Alice Springs 3 21112001
Culgoora 3 21102002
Gingin 4 21112111
Camden 2 21002001
Canberra 2 20002001
Hobart 4 21112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11002000
Casey 7 33212111
Mawson 24 62111155
Davis 11 42222124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1002 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 7 Quiet
01 May 7 Quiet
02 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet
as solar wind speed declined to a low ~360km/s although density
increased to somewhat offset the solar wind pressure on the geomagnetic
field. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly Quiet
for the next three days in the absence of prolonged southward
IMF Bz or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
01 May Normal Normal Normal
02 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal during
UT day, 28 April across mid-latitudes. Enhancements at near-equatorial
Niue Island station were possibly caused by remnant activity
in the equatorial anomaly/fountain after the geomagnetic disturbances
of the previous days. Expect mostly normal HF frequency availability
for next three days in the absence of significant geomagnetic
or solar flare activity. There is a chance of isolated M/X flares
from four of the solar active regions, which if they occur during
local daytime will cause short wave fadeouts of varying degree.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 62800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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