[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 20 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Today's largest
flare was a C1.1 flare that peaked at 1444UT. Solar wind speed
stayed between 280 and 310 km/s for most parts of the UT day
today whereas the Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-2
nT during this period. Low levels of solar activity with slight
possibility of M-class activity may be expected for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Darwin 5 221121--
Townsville 3 112111--
Learmonth 3 111111--
Alice Springs 1 1101100-
Culgoora 1 10110001
Gingin 2 110111--
Camden 0 00000000
Canberra 0 000000--
Hobart 2 10111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 000000--
Casey 2 121100--
Mawson 0 1000000-
Davis 4 12211112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 3 Quiet
21 Apr 3 Quiet
22 Apr 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of minor MUF depressions. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of minor MUF depressions. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 17700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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