[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 13 issued 2335 UT on 12 Apr 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 13 09:35:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.3    2038UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             120/72

COMMENT: Moderate solar activity was observed over the last 24 
hours. Active regions 1718 (N19W38) and 1719 (N10W01) produced 
two C flares each. The largest event was an M3 flare from region 
1718 at 12/2038 UT. Further M-class events are likely over the 
next 3 days. There is a small chance of an X-class event. The 
solar wind speed remained in the 400-500 km/s range, declining 
slightly. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT, with 
a positive bias. Solar wind speed is expected to increase late 
on 13-Apr, due to the arrival of the CME observed on 11-Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               7   322212--
      Townsville           5   222121--
      Learmonth            7   322122--
      Alice Springs        5   222111--
      Norfolk Island       4   22111111
      Culgoora             4   22211111
      Gingin               5   222111--
      Camden               3   12211001
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               4   22211111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   120100--
      Casey               13   443111--
      Mawson              11   433210--
      Davis               10   33332212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0011 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    20    Quiet to Major Storm
14 Apr    40    Major Storm to Unsettled
15 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 11 April and 
is current for 13-14 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian region. Unsettled to minor 
storm periods were observed in the first half of the UT day in 
Antarctica. Quiet conditions are expected for most of 13-Apr. 
Arrival of the CME observed 11-Apr is expected to result in conditions 
reaching major storm levels late on 13-Apr and continuing into 
14-Apr, subsequently declining to unsettled levels. Mostly quiet 
conditions are expected for 15-Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor
15 Apr      Fair-normal    Poor-fair      Poor-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor to 
moderate MUF enhancements. Minor to significant MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions are expected on 14-15 Apr, 
especially on mid and high latitudes, due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. Chance of 
sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight 
sectors.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr    30    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 7 was issued 
on 12 April and is current for 13-14 Apr. HF conditions were 
mostly normal today with minor to moderate MUF enhancements. 
Similar conditions are expected for 13-Apr. Minor to significant 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are expected 
on 14-15 Apr, especially in mid and Southern Aus/NZ regions, 
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during 
this period. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) 
on circuits with daylight sectors.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    99900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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