[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 13 issued 2322 UT on 10 Apr 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 11 09:22:35 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Seven low level
C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C4.2 at 1919UT
from region 1713(N08W88). Currently there are nine numbered
sunspots on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed stayed
between 330 and 400 km/s during most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 5nT during this
period, staying positive for relatively longer periods of time.
Low level of solar activity with some possibility of isolated
M-class flare may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 12211112
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 5 22221112
Norfolk Island 5 22211112
Culgoora 2 02110002
Gingin 4 02211112
Camden 2 -2210001
Canberra 2 02210001
Hobart 2 01211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 01121000
Casey 6 12321103
Mawson 8 01211025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 5 Quiet
12 Apr 4 Quiet
13 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor
to moderate MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for the next three days. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Apr 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Apr 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor
to moderate MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for the next three days. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 43500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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