[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 12 issued 2315 UT on 29 Oct 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 30 10:15:42 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Very Low to Low
for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         1   10110000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           4   22211111
      Learmonth            2   11111101
      Norfolk Island       1   10100002
      Culgoora             0   10100000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   10100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Mawson               7   23111014
      Davis                7   23222112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0021 2011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct     5    Quiet
31 Oct    12    Mostly Quiet with Active to Minor storm levels 
                possible late in the UT day.
01 Nov    18    Mostly Unsettled with isolated Active to Minor 
                Storm periods possible.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet for 30 October 
with activity expected to increase to Active and possible Minor 
Storm late on 31 October and into 1 November with the anticipated 
arrival of 27/28 October CMEs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Conditions should remain mostly normal for the next 
two days. Mildly degraded conditions may occur at times during 
1 November in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Oct   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct    95    Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct    90    Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov    75    Mostly near predicted monthly values with mild 
                depressions possible at times.

COMMENT: MUFs remain generally enhanced across Australia. MUFs 
should remain mostly near predicted monthly values for the next 
two days. Mild depressions may be observed during 1 November 
in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    51400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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