[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 12 issued 2331 UT on 27 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 28 10:31:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with only a single C1 flare.
A small CME is visible in STEREO coronagraph imagery beginning
at 1725UT. This may be geoeffective however the lack of any strong
flare in association with this event and the slow plane of sky
speed suggests any geomagnetic effects will be minor. Further
analysis will be given in tomorrow's report when further data
should be available. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 12100112
Darwin 3 11110013
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 2 22100001
Norfolk Island 2 21000112
Culgoora 2 12100012
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 3 12101111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 11101100
Mawson 11 44312112
Davis 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1021 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 5 Quiet
29 Oct 5 Quiet
30 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Some Unsettled periods
are possible late on day 3 (30 October UT) due to possible impact
from a small slow moving CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes over the past 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remain generally enhanced across Australia. MUFs
should remain at or above predicted monthly values for the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 59400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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