[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 12 issued 2331 UT on 21 Oct 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 22 10:31:24 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    2005UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 144/98


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Recently numbered active region 1598 (S09E69) produced 
C7.8 (0316UT), C5.6 (0534UT) and M1.3 (2003UT) flares over the 
UT day. These events were all of relatively short (~1hour) duration. 
No Earth-directed CME's were observed over the period. Region 
1596 (N06E33) contributed minor C-class flares. Both regions 
maintain potential for further isolated M- to X-class activity. 
Solar wind parameters were stable with solar wind speed steady 
at ~350 km/s. The IMF Bz component showed mild (+/-4nT) fluctuations 
about neutral. Solar wind speed is expected to increase slightly 
days one and two under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. 
The >2MeV electron flux remains elevated with increased possibility 
of satellite deep dielectric discharge.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   21111011
      Norfolk Island       3   11111111
      Culgoora             1   11011000
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   01011000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Mawson               5   32111012
      Davis                9   33322121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   0000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes. 
Chance of Unsettled periods at low to mid latitudes and isolated 
Active intervals at high latitudes days one and two due to an 
anticipated mild coronal hole wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at all latitudes 
over the past 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced 30% before local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
23 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
24 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

COMMENT: Observed enhanced MUF's across the region due to sustained 
high EUV flux associated with a number of active regions on the 
visible solar disk. There is the possibility of isolated M- to 
X-class flares with associated HF fadeouts. Anticipated mild 
geomagnetic activity days one and two may produce low-latitude 
MUF variability and high latitude disturbances. There is a possibility 
of proton enhancement within the period resulting in high latitude 
ionospheric disturbances.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    59800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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