[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 12 issued 2341 UT on 29 Nov 2012

Fri Nov 30 10:41:54 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 113/64

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Regions 1620(S13W69) and 1623(N08E50)produced multiple 
C flares, the greatest magnitude being a C5.8 from region 1623 
at 1205UT. New region 1625(N13E50) also produced C-class flares 
late in the UT day. Region 1620 remains the most magnetically 
complex visible region and M flare activity is probable over 
the next few days. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed over 
the period. ACE solar wind parameters were mostly undisturbed. 
The solar wind is predicted to become disturbed from the latter 
half of 30 Nov due to the 27 Nov CME and coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121211
      Darwin               5   22121212
      Townsville           5   12221211
      Learmonth            4   21121211
      Alice Springs        4   21120211
      Norfolk Island       3   11120111
      Culgoora             2   10120111
      Gnangara             4   21121211
      Camden               4   21121111
      Canberra             2   10120110
      Hobart               3   11120201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey               12   33431222
      Mawson               8   23221232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
01 Dec    12    Unsettled
02 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Geomagnetic 
activity should be mostly Quiet for the first half of 30 Nov 
with activity expected to increase to Unsettled and possible 
Active late on 30 Nov and into 01 Dec with the anticipated arrival 
of 27/Nov CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects. Storm 
levels possible at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may occur at times over the 
forecast period in response to possible elevated geomagnetic 
activity. Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Nov    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov    75    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Dec    75    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values during the 
last 24 hours. Mild depressions may be observed during 30 Nov-01 
Dec in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    53000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.