[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 12 issued 2349 UT on 27 Nov 2012

Wed Nov 28 10:49:52 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    1557UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    2126UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 117/69

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: A number of C flares and an M1 flare at 1557 UT originated 
from region 1618 (N09W81). Region 1620(S12W43), also produced 
C-class flares during this period. Region 1618 retains its magnetic 
complexity and region 1620 continues to grow in size and magnetic 
complexity. This two regions may produce M-class flares over 
the forecast period. LASCO and STEREO images indicate a geo-effective 
CME around 0230 UT associated with a disappearing filament. A 
second CME was first observed in STEREO images at 27/0530 requires 
further analysis. ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed. 
The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the 
next two days(28-29Nov). A small coronal hole wind stream may 
increase the solar wind speed day 3 (30 Nov).The CME associated 
with the filament eruption on 27/0230 Nov is likely to impact 
late on 30 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122121
      Darwin               6   22122222
      Townsville           5   12212221
      Learmonth            6   22222122
      Alice Springs        4   11122112
      Norfolk Island       2   11101111
      Culgoora             4   11122111
      Gnangara             5   21122122
      Camden               4   11122121
      Canberra             2   01112011
      Hobart               3   11112111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00002000
      Casey               13   34422222
      Mawson              12   22231244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   3110 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov     5    Quiet
29 Nov     5    Quiet
30 Nov    15    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours 
and are expected to remain so for 28-29 Nov for the Australian 
region. Effects of a small coronal hole and the 27 Nov CME are 
expected on 30-Nov (most likely in the last half of the UT day). 
Expect Unsettled with possible isolated Active levels. Storm 
levels possible at high latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Nov    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values during the 
last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the next 24 
hours. Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    97200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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