[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 12 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 26 10:30:03 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Two, low level, C flares, one each from regions 1618
(N08 W54) and 1620 (S14 W15). Region 1618 is now declining while
region 1620 grew rapidly and is classified Dai. Three new spot
groups: S25E32, S18E40 and N15E65. No CMEs observed although
SDO images show activity on the south-west limb around 1845 UT.
ACE data show the solar wind speed increased to peak at 490 km/s
around 15 UT with current speed about 440 km/s. The north-south
IMF component was northward to 10 nT until ~11 UT then ranged
between -9 and 6 nT afterwards. The effects from the CME on 23
Nov are expected either later on 26 or 27 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 23312212
Darwin 8 23322212
Townsville 8 23322221
Learmonth 8 23322212
Alice Springs 7 23312211
Norfolk Island 6 13312111
Culgoora 7 13312212
Gnangara 6 22222212
Camden 8 13313212
Canberra 7 13313111
Hobart 8 13313211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 02204211
Casey 25 36543212
Mawson 12 23323332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 4443 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Chance of isolated minor storm periods on 27 Nov if
CME effects eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values.
27 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values.
28 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
30% possible at times.
COMMENT: Some degradations observed during night hours at mid
and high latitudes due to spread F and sporadic E.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 70800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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