[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 12 issued 2336 UT on 23 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 24 10:36:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Only a few low level C flares with region 1618 (N08
W27) retaining its magnetic complexity. SDO images show a large
filament lift off between 1045 and 1345 UT from the south-east
quadrant. STEREO images indicate some material ejected into the
ecliptic plane from the filament, probably impacting 27 Nov.
ACE data show the solar wind was undisturbed until 2113 UT when
a weak shock was observed. This raised the density and speed
to 410 km/s with the north-south IMF component decreasing to
-9 nT. The solar wind is expected to be disturbed 24 Nov due
to the CME effects from 20 and 21 Nov. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 23/1055UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet. Unsettled
to active after ~21 UT.
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11111013
Darwin 5 22121112
Townsville 6 12211123
Learmonth 5 21121113
Alice Springs 1 1001100-
Norfolk Island 3 11000013
Culgoora 0 0001001-
Gnangara 3 11111111
Camden 2 1111101-
Canberra 2 00000013
Hobart 2 0111101-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00011002
Casey 10 3432110-
Mawson 7 22112223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 30 Active to minor storm
25 Nov 15 Unsettled to active
26 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 22 November
and is current for 23-25 Nov. Major storm levels likely at high
latitudes 24 Nov. Minor storm levels possible on 25 Nov as CME
effects decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
MUFs likely to be depressed on 24 and 25 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
07-17 UT. Depressions to 20% 20-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 15-30% 00-17 UT, then near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 20-40% at Darwin 07-18 UT and 20-35% 04-19 UT at
Townsville. Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 90 Near monthly predicted values. Occasional depressions
to 30% possible.
25 Nov 70 Near monthly predicted values to 30% depressed.
26 Nov 90 Near monthly predicted values. Occasional depressions
to 30% possible.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 22 November
and is current for 24-25 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 47500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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