[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 12 issued 2336 UT on 14 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 15 09:36:48 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             128/81

COMMENT: A number of impulsive C-class flares were produced by 
active region 1476(N09W46). This region, the largest on the visible 
solar disk show some decay, classified as FKc and still maintains 
potential for M class flare activity. Previously M-flare(s) producing 
region 1466 is due for return to the north-east limb. LASCO and 
STEREO images show two CMEs likely associated with the flare 
activity from region 1476, unlikely to be geoeffective. ACE data 
shows the solar wind speed was slightly disturbed with wind speed 
ranging between 440-480 Km/s. The IMF Bz was mostly Neutral until 
15UT after wich it trended slightly Southward before trending 
North again late in the UT day. Solar wind parameters my be moderately 
disturbed on 15 May with the anticipated arrival of the CME observed 
on May 12.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100111
      Darwin               2   21100111
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            4   22111211
      Norfolk Island       2   21100110
      Camden               2   22100110
      Canberra             1   11000100
      Hobart               2   21100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   21000000
      Casey                7   33211211
      Mawson              20   53311154
      Davis               13   33312234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   3433 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 May     5    Quiet
17 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet. Mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled at Antarctic stations with isolated active to minor 
storm levels. There is a possibility of briefly Unsettled conditions 
day one due to a glancing blow from the CME observed May 12. 
Conditions should decline to Quiet day two.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable conditions with extended periods of poor
         ionospheric support.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
16 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
17 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions at times at all latitudes. 
Spread F observed during local night hours Camden,Canberra and 
Hobart. Overnight depressions possible at times at all latitudes. 
Disturbed periods likely Antarctic region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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