[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 12 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 26 10:30:33 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day with three C-class 
flares from regions AR1444 (N19E09) and AR1445 (S24E50). A series 
of weak, eastward-directed CMEs were observed in SOHO LASCO C2 
imagery between 0048UT and 0524UT, none of which are expected 
to have a significant impact on Earth. AR1445 is now an F-class 
spot group with a beta magnetic configuration, with the potential 
to produce isolated M-class flares as it rotates into a more 
geoeffective position. Solar activity is therefore expected to 
be at Low-Moderate levels. The solar wind speed declined over 
the period to ~360km/s at time of reporting. The IMF was mostly 
stable over the UT day, with a neutral orientation. A high speed 
coronal hole wind stream is expected to move into geoeffective 
position on day 3 (28-Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222001
      Darwin               4   22212101
      Townsville           3   11222001
      Learmonth            5   22223100
      Norfolk Island       3   21212001
      Camden               3   12222000
      Canberra             2   11212000
      Hobart               5   22222111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     6   11333000
      Casey                9   34321110
      Mawson               7   32322111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   1442 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar     5    Quiet
27 Mar     5    Quiet
28 Mar    12    Unsettled, isolated Active periods at high latitudes

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet conditions next two days (26-27 Mar), and mostly 
Unsettled conditions, with isolated Active periods at high latitudes, 
day 3 (28-Mar) with the expected arrival of a coronal hole wind 
stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Some mild depressions were experienced in S.Aus regions over 
the day. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values 
over the next three days (26-28 Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    73100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list