[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 29 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 30 09:29:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/1B 0920UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels with multiple C-class
and one M2 flare over the last 24 hours. Regions 1513(N17E45)
and 1515(S17E58) have been the most active and continue to grow
in size and complexity. The solar wind conditions were mostly
ambient with a brief southward turning of the IMF Bz component
down to -8nT around 2200UT. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in currently available imagery. A co-rotating interaction region
ahead of a coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to
arrive sometime late on the June 30 or early on July 1. Solar
flare activity is expected to remain Moderate with more M flares
from region 1513 and possibly 1515 likely.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Darwin 6 22101322
Townsville 6 12212123
Learmonth 5 22122112
Norfolk Island 2 11000012
Camden 2 11001012
Canberra 1 11000002
Hobart 6 11000034
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 5 23201012
Mawson 13 22301045
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2231 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field has been Quiet in the Australian
region. Conditions are expected to remain mostly Quiet until
the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream late on
30 June or early on 1 July. Conditions are expected to be Unsettled
to Active after the arrival with isolated Minor Storm levels
of activity in Antarctica.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good however the maximum
useable frequencies have been depressed are may remain so for
the next day or two. On days 2 and 3 (1-2 July) Unsettled to
Active geomagnetic conditions may degrade HF propagation at high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 60 Depressed up to 20%
01 Jul 60 Depressed up to 20%
02 Jul 60 Depressed up to 20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. Current depressed levels are
likely to persist for at least the next day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 91300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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