[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 12 issued 2335 UT on 19 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 20 09:35:38 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours,
with two C1 flares from active region 1504 (S17W61). Solar activity
is expected to remain low over the next three days, with a slight
chance of M-class activity. The solar wind speed has reduced
to ~350km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral during the
UT day, with a recent southward bias to around -3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 0 00100001
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 3 22211100
Norfolk Island 3 13100010
Camden 1 -1100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 4 12111112
Mawson 4 21111022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 4632 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 5 Quiet
21 Jun 5 Quiet
22 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels for the
last 24 hours and is expected to remain quiet for the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed across most of the Australian
region, with periods of spread-F in Southern Australia until
15UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values
to mildly depressed in the Australian region over the next 3
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 55000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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