[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 12 issued 2356 UT on 08 Jun 2012
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 9 09:56:07 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests
that a CME observed in association with the C7-flare at 0307UT
on 8 June is predominantly southward directed and is not expected
to be strongly geoeffective. The effects of the glancing CME
impact anticipated for 8 June have been weak. There is the chance
of a glancing CME impact for 10 June. There is the small chance
of M-class flare activity for 9 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 12331010
Darwin 6 22331011
Townsville 8 22332121
Learmonth 6 22232021
Norfolk_Island 5 12331010
Camden 5 12331010
Canberra 5 12331000
Hobart 5 11331010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie_Island 6 11342000
Casey 6 33221010
Mawson 13 43442101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2222 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 6 Quiet
10 Jun 12 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active
periods possible
11 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated Active levels are possible during 10 June with
an anticipated glancing CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 631 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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