[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 12 issued 2349 UT on 31 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 1 09:49:27 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: New solar regions 1493 and 1494 located in the NE and
SE respectively produced C-class flare activity during 31 May.
Further C-class flare activity is likely for 1 June. Solar wind
speeds are declining slowly and are presently below 400 km/s.
Solar wind speeds may become elevated again during 3 June under
the influence of an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
No likely geoeffective CMEs were observed during 31 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 5 21221221
Darwin 5 21221221
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22222221
Norfolk Island 4 22211110
Camden 4 11221120
Canberra 3 11211110
Hobart 4 11221210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00122110
Casey 7 33221220
Mawson 11 33332321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 3112 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 4 Quiet
02 Jun 6 Quiet
03 Jun 8 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of
isolated Active levels.
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels are expected for 1-2 June. Unsettled
and isolated Active periods are possible during 3 June with the
arrival of an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were Fair to Normal during 31 May. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Fair to Normal for northern regions
during 31 May with mostly Normal conditions observed for central
and southern regions. Mostly Normal conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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