[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 12 issued 2354 UT on 15 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 16 09:54:48 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             120/72

COMMENT: Only minor C-class flare activity observed over the 
past 24 hours. Active region 1519 (S16W68) produced three C-class 
flares late in the UT day. Solar wind parameters remain elevated 
due to the CME impact yesterday from the X class flare observed 
Jul 12. Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day from 
700 to 500 km/s. Around 06 UT the solar wind magnetic and particle 
fluxes changed abruptly. Proton fluxes declined sharply, while 
the magnetic field Bz component entered a sustained strong negative 
excursion approaching -20nT. At the time of report issue solar 
wind Bz remains in this sustained negative excursion, resulting 
in strong coupling to the geomagnetic field. The elevated solar 
wind parameters are expected to decline over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Active to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      34   44554445
      Darwin              31   44453535
      Townsville          37   44554455
      Learmonth           48   55555555
      Norfolk Island      26   33553344
      Camden              38   44564445
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart              45   44664455    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
      Macquarie Island   104   36785---
      Casey               22   44433---
      Mawson              27   4453335-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin              70   (Active)
      Townsville          68   (Active)
      Learmonth           89   (Minor storm)
      Alice Springs       75   (Active)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra            NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             49                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   1110 1265     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Jul     7    Quiet
18 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled to Active early 
in the UT day due to ongoing CME effects resultant from the Jul 
12 X-class solar flare. At around 06UT, the solar wind Bz component 
made a strong negative excursion, which it has maintained for 
the remainder of the UT day. This combined with elevated solar 
wind speed has resulted in strong coupling between solar wind 
and geomagnetic fields resulting in minor to major magnetic storm 
periods at all latitudes. Expect continuing geomagnetic storm 
periods day one. Solar wind parameters should gradually decline 
during days one and two, becoming generally Quiet by day three.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions at low to mid latitudes 
due to disturbed solar wind parameters. Poor ionospheric support 
at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
      Depressed 15% 14-19UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night with periods
      of spread-F conditions.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable depressions to 15% during local day.
      Variable enhancements to 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionospheric support with occasional MUF
      enhancements.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
17 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
18 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.

COMMENT: Variable propagation conditions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions with moderate day-time depressions and occasionally 
strong night-time enhancements. Continuing poor ionospheric support 
Antarctic region. Proton event ended early in the UT day and 
no significant absorption observed. Chance of isolated short-wave 
fadeout events. Possible ongoing disturbance day one due to CME 
effects from the X-class flare observed late on Jul 12. As geomagnetic 
disturbances decline, expect a return to lower EUV solar radiation 
leading to below average MUF's.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    64500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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