[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 12 issued 2333 UT on 10 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 11 10:33:26 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
B-class events from region 1416 (S17E10) and two C1 flares from
region 1415 (N08W84). Solar activity is expected to remain low
for the next three days, with a chance of higher activity due
to the return of previously active regions 1401 and 1402. Two
CMEs were first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 10/1124 and 10/2024.
The second of these was associated with a long filament eruption
in the NE quadrant. At this stage, it is unclear whether either
CME will be geoeffective. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed varied between 400-450km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/-5nT. Mild effects from a coronal hole high speed wind stream
are expected on 12-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Darwin 7 22212123
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22122222
Norfolk Island 4 2120112-
Camden 5 22211122
Canberra 4 21111022
Hobart 5 22211122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01111001
Casey 19 35533122
Mawson 13 32223144
Davis 13 23334232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2101 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 5 Quiet
12 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during the last 24
hours. Some active and minor storm periods were observed in Antarctica.
Unsettled periods are likely on 12-Feb in response to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over
the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly normal for
11-12 Feb. Mild depressions are possible on 13-Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 98000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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