[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 30 09:49:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Active Region 1302 (N13W16) produced a long-duration
C2 level flare at 1247UT. There was an associated Type II radio
sweep with estimated shock speed 608km/s. This event may become
geoeffective. LASCO C3 imagery was incomplete for the day but
showed a slow semi-halo CME after 20UT. A moderate shock was
observed in the solar wind at the ACE satellite platform at about
00UT. Solar wind speed stepped from 450 to 550 km/s, then declined
gradually over the UT day back to 450 km/s. The Bz component
of the IMF sustained -10nT for about 2 hours following the shock,
then was mostly neutral to slightly positive for the remainder
of the UT day. Region 1302 maintains potential for isolated M
to X class flares.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0024UT on
29 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 20 55423222
Darwin 22 55423313
Townsville 22 55433322
Learmonth 22 55433223
Alice_Springs 20 55423212
Norfolk_Island 17 55322221
Gnangara 18 54323323
Camden 20 55423212
Canberra 20 55423212
Hobart 20 55423222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 27 65434321
Casey 29 55633223
Davis 40 76434332
Mawson 78 96432445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 65 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 75 (Active)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 24 3455 5312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A minor shock was observed in the solar wind at about
00UT. The Bz component of the IMF sustained -10nT for about 2
hours following the shock, resulting in active to minor storm
geomagnetic conditions at low to mid latitudes between 00-09UT.
Minor to major storm conditions were observed at high latitudes
during the same period. Conditions declined to Quiet by the last
quarter of the UT day. Expect Unsettled periods days 1-2 due
to residual solar wind disturbance from yesterday's event, and
a minor recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime enhancements N Aus region. Spread-F
around local dawn at Hobart. Expect mostly normal HF propagation
conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed periods Antarctic
region days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 81900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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