[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 28 09:48:19 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity declined to low levels on 27 Sep. A
disappearing solar filament was observed in AR1305 (N13E45) at 
0125UT. A C6.4 level flare was observed in AR1302 (N13E10) at 
12058UT. Type IV radio bursts and noise continua were observed 
throughout the UT day. North- and East-directed CME's were observed 
early in the UT day. These are not expected to be geoeffective. Solar 
wind speed declined steadily from 650 to 550 km/s. The Bz component 
of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT. There is a chance of isolated M 
to X class flares from AR1302. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   43433233
      Darwin              17   43432234
      Townsville          18   43433234
      Learmonth           16   43432233
      Alice_Springs       15   33433233
      Norfolk_Island      11   33322223
      Gnangara            15   43422233
      Camden              17   43333234
      Canberra            15   43333233
      Hobart              18   44433233
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep : 
      Macquarie_Island    28   44455234
      Casey               22   55432233
      Davis               22   44534323
      Mawson              41   45534337
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Darwin              83   (Minor storm)
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           42   (Unsettled)
      Alice_Springs       28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara           155   (Severe storm)
      Canberra           113   (Major storm)
      Hobart             141   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20   N/A
           Planetary             67        


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled. Chance active periods. 
29 Sep     7    Quiet 
30 Sep     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled. 
Active conditions were observed at most latitudes 0-9UT and 21-24UT. 
Minor Storm intervals observed throughout the UT day at high 
latitudes. Expect Unsettled conditions day one with the chance 
of isolated Active to Minor Storm intervals, mainly at high latitudes.
Conditions should decline to generally Quiet days two and three. 
Recurrence suggests a weak coronal hole wind stream effect days 
two to three but current solar imagery is not supportive. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor
PCA Event : Began at 2250UT 23/09, Ended at 0250UT 27/09
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The proton event which began 23/2300UT ended 27/0430UT. 
Expect gradual improvement in HF conditions at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Sep    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Generally weak ionosphere due to proton event

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable enhancements /depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions mainly local day. Disturbed conditions at high latitudes. 
The proton event which began 23/2300UT ended 27/0430UT. Expect 
improving conditions Antarctic region. Strong enhancements observed 
Equatorial/N Aus regions after local dawn 28 Sep. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    92300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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