[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 26 09:35:53 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW
**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 24/2359UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M4.5    0233UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M7.4    0451UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    0706UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.1    0849UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.5    0937UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.7    1533UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    1619UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.2    1658UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 169/123

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Flare producing regions were 1302 (N12E36), M4.4 at 
0233UT, M7.4 at 0450UT, M3.1 at 0849UT,M3.7 at 1533UT and an 
M2.2 at 1658UT, and region 1303 (S28W79) M1.0 at 24/2358UT and 
an M1.5 at 0935UT. LASCO and STEREO observed several CMEs over 
the period, none of which are expected to be geoeffective. ACE 
data show solar wind parameters were undisturbed until around 
1050 UT when there was a positive step in density and speed. 
The IMF north-south component was briefly southward to about 
-8nT with the wind speed increasing to 380 km/s. Solar wind
parameters are expected to be mildly disturbed over the next
three days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 25/1020UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Mostly quiet. 

Estimated Indices 25 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22022212
      Darwin               6   22122222
      Townsville           9   23232222
      Learmonth            7   22032312
      Alice_Springs        5   22022212
      Norfolk_Island       4   22021111
      Gnangara             6   21122222
      Camden               5   22021212
      Canberra             3   12021111
      Hobart               3   12021201
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep : 
      Macquarie_Island     1   01010100
      Casey               11   34232222
      Davis                9   23232222
      Mawson               5   22121211
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep : 
      Darwin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0001 2122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep    20    Quiet to active. 
27 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 25 September 
and is current for interval 25-27 September. Chance of isolated 
minor storm periods at higher latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 09 2011 2250UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Sep    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      12-17 UT. No data 18-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 12-17UT.
      Enhanced to 30% 05-10 and 19-22UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      16-18UT at Darwin. Enhancements to 30% 12-15 UT at
      Darwin and 00-01, 09-13, 21-23UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere at high latitudes. Mostly near predicted
      monthly values to 40% enhanced. Proton event in progress,
      increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
27 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional 
                depressions to 20%.. 
28 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 23 September 
and is current for interval 24-26 September (SWFs) . With solar 
activity increasing, there is the chance of sudden disruptions 
to communications (short wave fade-outs). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    48000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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