[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 25 09:44:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 23/2219UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.9 23/2357UT possible lower West Pacific
X1.9 0940UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M7.1 1322UT probable lower European
M1.7 1701UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.1 1726UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.0 1926UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.8 2036UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2129UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 190/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: There were a number of flares over the period; most
notably an X1.9 at 0940UT, an M7.1 at 1320UT, an M2.8 at1815
UT and an M3.0 at 1921UT (AR 1302(N12E47)), an M3.1 at 18725UT
from AR1295 (N24W78) and an M5.8 from new AR1303 (S28W60). LASCO
and STEREO images show a weak CME associated with the X1.9 flare
and a strong CME associated with the M7.1 flare, which is expected
to be geoeffective about 26-27 Sep. Solar wind parameters were
undisturbed over the reporting period (the expected disturbance
did not occur). Solar wind parameters are expected to become
disturbed on 26 Sep. Previous X-flare producing region 1283 is
due for return to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21112012
Darwin 4 22211012
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 5 22121112
Alice_Springs 4 21111112
Norfolk_Island 3 21111011
Gnangara 5 22112121
Camden 3 20112012
Canberra 3 20112012
Hobart 3 10122012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 2 00012011
Casey 9 33322022
Davis 7 22322122
Mawson 8 11211143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 7 Quiet to unsettled
26 Sep 25 Quiet to unsettled with active to minor storm
periods.
27 Sep 20 Active to minor storm periods declining later.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 24 September
and is current for interval 26-27 September. The expected disturbance
did not eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 09 2011 2250UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
26 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
27 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
26 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
27 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 23 September
and is current for interval 24-26 September (SWFs) .
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 57000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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