[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 21 09:27:25 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 144/98

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: There were numerous C-class flares, the largest being 
a C9.5 at 0513 UT from region 1296 (N26W15). Regions 1295 (N22W33) 
and 1301 (N20E55) were the other contributors. SOHO LASCO and 
STEREO images show no Earth directed CMEs during the reporting 
period. Solar wind parameters were mostly undisturbed apart from 
a brief period around 02-05 UT when there was a sustained but 
mild southward IMF and an increase in the solar wind to about 
470 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed 
on 21 and 22 Sep becoming mildly disturbed in the latter half 
of 23 Sep due to the effects of the CME on the 19 Sep and coronal 
holes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12221111
      Darwin               5   13211112
      Townsville           7   23222122
      Learmonth            5   22221111
      Alice_Springs        5   23121111
      Norfolk_Island       3   22111001
      Gnangara             5   22221121
      Camden               3   12211011
      Canberra             3   12211010
      Hobart               3   12211010
      Macquarie_Island     2   02211000
      Casey               11   -4332122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1010 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep     5    Quiet 
22 Sep     5    Quiet 
23 Sep    12    Quiet with unsettled to active periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Sep    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-11 and 23 UT.
      No data 12-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      enhancements to 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
      Depressions to 40% at Darwin 17-18 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
      to 30% mostly Hobart, Perth and Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued
on 20 September and is current for interval 21 September
only (SWFs) . With solar activity increasing, there is
the chance of sudden disruptions to communications
(short wave fade-outs). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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