[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 20 09:30:17 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 141/95

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: There were a number of C-class flares, the largest being 
a C6.9 at 1541 UT from region 1301 (N20E63). There were also 
a number of CMEs, only one of which appears to have a weak, Earth 
directed component, based on the STEREO images. This CME appears 
to have originated from region 1301 before 0654 UT and may be 
geo-effective around 23 Sep. Solar wind parameters have been 
undisturbed over the past 24 hours and are expected to remain 
so over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Darwin               4   22200112
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            3   11111111
      Alice_Springs        1   11100011
      Norfolk_Island       1   01101110
      Gnangara             3   11111111
      Camden               1   10100011
      Canberra             0   00100010
      Hobart               1   01100010
      Macquarie_Island     0   00100000
      Casey                4   2--21111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2101 2113     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     5    Quiet 
21 Sep     5    Quiet 
22 Sep     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Sep    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly valueswith enhancements to 23%
      06-08 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      09-12 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: With solar activity increasing, there is the chance 
of sudden disruptions to communications (short wave fade-outs). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    30700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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