[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 19 09:44:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: There have been 5 C-class flares over the last 24 hours.
The largest one was a long duration C3.8 flare from region 1295(N22W12)
at 1057UT. LASCO imagery showed an associated CME at around 1242UT,
it is not Earth directed. Solar activity is expected to be Low
with a slight chance of isolated M-class flares for the next
3 days. The solar wind speed mostly varied between 400-460Km/s
over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz maintained positive over the
first part of the UT day with no major fluctuations over the
reporting period. The solar wind speed is expected to return
to quiescent over the next 24 hours.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1283 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22122211
Darwin 6 22112213
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 7 33122210
Alice_Springs 5 2212220-
Norfolk_Island 4 22012112
Gnangara 7 3212221-
Camden 5 22122112
Canberra 4 2202210-
Hobart 4 12122102
Macquarie_Island 4 1203-100
Casey 10 3333121-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 32 0334 6643
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 5 Quiet
20 Sep 5 Quiet
21 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominately
Quiet for the next 3days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions were observed for the AUS/NZ regions
over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions. MUFs are expected to be near monthly values
over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 73800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list