[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 14 09:49:25 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours and is
expected to be Low with a chance of isolated M-class flares for
the next 3 days. A CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images
around 13:40 UT it is not expected to be geo-effective. The solar
wind speed varied mostly between 560-600 Km/s between 00UT and
12UT then decreased gradually and is now around 540km/s. The
IMF Bz mostly fluctuated between +/-5nT staying predominately
positive(around +5 nT) between 12UT and 18UT. Solar wind speed
is expected to continue to decline over the next 3 days as the
effects of coronal hole wind stream subside.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1283 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 33332112
Darwin 11 33332113
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 10 33332122
Alice_Springs 9 33332012
Norfolk_Island 8 33331011
Gnangara 10 33332122
Camden 9 33332011
Canberra 9 33332011
Hobart 10 34332011
Macquarie_Island 19 34553011
Casey 20 45442123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 60 (Unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 108 (Major storm)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 109 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 27 4444 3445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominately Unsettled at
mid and Low latitudes and Active to Minor Storm at high latitudes
prior 13UT. After 13UT Bz went northward reducing the activity
to mainly Quiet levels. Conditions are expected to be Quieter
with Unsettled periods becoming less frequent for the next few
days as the solar wind speed gradually decays back to normal.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed periods were observed at times in most areas
over the last 24 hours. Sporadic-E and Spread F conditions were
observed at times wich may have degraded HF conditions. HF conditions
are expected to improve to near normal conditions with occasional
depressions over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 612 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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