[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 11 09:54:12 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **  MAG:** YELLOW **  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SN    0740UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar wind speeds remained mildly elevated during the 
past 24 hours following the arrival of a CME around 1130UT on 
9 September. Solar region 1283 produced an M1-flare at 0740UT 
on 10 September. An erupting filament was observed in the north-west 
quadrant around 03UT on 10 September. Analysis of STEREO and 
SOHO satellite imagery suggests that CMEs associated with the 
filament and flare activity are primarily directed either out 
of the ecliptic plane to the north or to west and are therefore 
not expected to be geoeffective. However, there is still the 
small chance of a glancing blow from recent CME activity over 
the next few days. A coronal hole solar wind stream is anticipated 
to become geoeffective late on 11 September and into 12 September.




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 10 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   43442333
      Darwin              18   33432434
      Townsville          20   43442433
      Learmonth           29   53453444
      Alice Springs       18   43432433
      Norfolk Island      15   43432322
      Gnangara            21   53332344
      Camden              17   43432333
      Canberra            18   43442333
      Hobart              17   44332333
      Macquarie Island    26   54452334
      Casey               21   53441243    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep : 
      Darwin              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             36   1100 5755     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep    12    Unsettled
12 Sep    16    Unsettled to Active
13 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Unsettled to 
Active over the Australian region during 10 September, with some 
storm periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be predominantly Unsettled with the chance of isolated Active 
levels and storm periods at high latitudes for 11 September as 
CME effects abate. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase 
again slightly with the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole 
wind stream late in the UT day of 11 September into 12 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
13 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be slightly degraded at 
times over the next few days as the result of recent geomagnetic 
activity. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
12 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
13 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be depressed at times over the 
next few days as the result of recent geomagnetic activity. SWFs 
are possible over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 327 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   261000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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