[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 10 10:39:31 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT **CORRECTED VERSION **
ISSUED AT 10/0030Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **  MAG:** YELLOW **  ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.7    0611UT  possible   lower  Mid East/European
  M1.2    1249UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Sep             11 Sep             12 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival of a CME 
around 1130UT on 9 September. This is most likely the CME observed 
in association with the flare late on 6 September. Solar region 
1283 produced an M2-flare at 0611UT and an M1-flare at 1249UT 
on 9 September, with the first of these flares associated with 
a CME. Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests 
that this CME is primarily directed in ecliptic plane and to 
west. A glancing blow is possible from this CME late 11-12 September. 
A coronal hole solar wind stream is also anticipated during this 
period.


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 09 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   12115454
      Darwin              20   12115454
      Townsville          20   12225453
      Learmonth           23   12115554
      Alice Springs       22   12215553
      Norfolk Island      16   22015443
      Gnangara            18   11124454
      Camden              18   11115453
      Canberra            18   01015453
      Hobart              19   01014554
      Macquarie Island    12   02003-53
      Casey               17   12314444
      Mawson              22   2321455-
      Davis               22   23325345    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep : 
      Darwin              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1200 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
11 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Sep    16    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased during the latter half 
of 9 September due to the arrival of a CME around 1130UT. Primarily 
Active to Minor Storm periods were observed with isolated Major 
Storm periods observed at southern high latitude stations. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be predominantly Unsettled to Active 
for the Australian region with some isolated storm periods at 
high latitudes for 10 September. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly Unsettled to Quiet for most of 11 September, with 
activity possibly increasing again late on 11 September into 
12 September due to anticipated coronal hole and CME effects.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 09 Sep, a weak (33nT) impulse 
was observed at 1243UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to fair during the 
last 24 hours. HF conditions are expected to be moderately degraded 
at times over the next few days as the result of recent geomagnetic 
activity. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Sep    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Sep    40    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Sep    50    Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Sep    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 15%

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near predicted values to depressed 
10-20% at times during the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to 
be depressed at times over the next few days as the result of 
recent geomagnetic activity. SWFs are possible over the next 
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    37300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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