[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 9 09:53:16 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 07/2300UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M6.7    1546UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was High with X1 and M6 flares observed 
over the last 24 hours. Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite 
imagery suggests that CMEs associated with recent flare activity 
appear to be mostly directed up out of the ecliptic plane and 
are therefore not expected to be very geoeffective. However, 
there is the chance of a glancing impact from these CMEs.




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Darwin               3   22200002
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            1   11110001
      Norfolk Island       1   11100010
      Gnangara             2   22011100
      Camden               1   11100000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   11000000
      Casey                4   23211001    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3111 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep    18    Unsettled to Active
10 Sep    12    Unsettled
11 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
to unsettled over the next few days with the chance of active 
periods and storm levels at high latitudes due to a possible 
glancing impact from recent CME activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible CME effects may degrade high-latitude HF conditions 
at times over the next 3 days, otherwise conditions are expected 
to be mostly normal. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Sep    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 7 September 
and is current for interval 8-10 September (SWFs) Observed MUFs 
were mostly near predicted values over the last 24 hours. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values over 
the next 3 days, with mild depressions possible at times at high 
latitudes due to possible CME effects. SWFs are possible over 
the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    69400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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