[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 7 09:44:38 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.3 0150UT possible lower West Pacific
X2.1 2220UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. Region
1283 (N14W18) produced an M5 flare at 06/0150 and an X2 flare
at 06/2220. A CME associated with the earlier event is likely
to be at most mildly geoeffective from 08Sep, with the majority
of its ejected mass directed above Earth's orbital plane. Analysis
of a CME associated with the X-class event is not yet complete.
Solar activity is expected to be Moderate over the next 3 days,
with a chance of further X-class events. The solar wind speed
declined from ~450km/s to ~420km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/-5nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22322112
Darwin 7 22321113
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 5 21221211
Gnangara 5 21222211
Camden 8 23322112
Canberra 3 12211001
Casey 8 32322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2010 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 5 Quiet
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 6 September
and is current for interval 8-9 September. Subsequent analysis
indicates lower than anticipated activity as a result of the CME
that triggered the warning.
Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled over the last
24 hours, with brief Active and Minor Storm periods observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, with the chance of Unsettled to Active
periods due to possible CME effects from 08Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Brief short wave fadeouts were observed, associated
with solar flares at 06/0150 and 06/2220UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 6 September
and is current for interval 8-9 September Some depressed MUF
periods observed in Niue Island region. Mostly normal conditions
elsewhere. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 78900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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