[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 3 09:36:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Regions
1283 (N14E48) and 1281 (S18E04) produced several low-level events,
the largest being a C1.8 flare from region 1281 at 02/1516UT.
A CME from the SE limb is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar
activity is expected to remain Low over the next 3 days with
a small chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed varied
between 270-310 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz ranged between
+2 and -4nT, remaining mostly negative from 01-21UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain at low levels on 03Sep, before
increasing as the result of coronal hole effects from 04Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 3 12111011
Townsville 5 12222112
Learmonth 3 12111011
Gnangara 4 21111121
Camden 2 11111001
Canberra 0 00010000
Casey 3 22111011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 5 Quiet
04 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Activity and is expected to remain mostly Quiet on 03Sep. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions with some Active periods are expected
during 04-05Sep due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 45 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions were observed over the UT day in
the Northern AUS region, with mostly normal conditions elsewhere.
These conditions are expected to continue for 03-04Sep, returning
to more normal conditions by 05Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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