[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 1 09:32:11 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1283 (N14E66) produced a C2 flare at 31/1124. Regions 1281 (S21E28)
and 1282 (N24W12) showed continued signs of growth. Activity
is expected to be Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
declined slightly from ~380 km/s to ~340 km/s over the UT day.
The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain at low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110100
Darwin 1 11200000
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 1 11110100
Gnangara 1 11110100
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Casey 5 23310100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 5 Quiet
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Activity and is expected to remain mostly Quiet for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (... growth... Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressions to 30% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the UT day,
with some nighttime depressions in Equatorial and Northern AUS
regions. Enhanced MUFS in Niue Island region from 05-11UT. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with occasional
mild depressions in Equatorial and Northern AUS regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 72700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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