[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 11 issued 2329 UT on 28 Oct 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 29 10:29:32 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours,
with a C1 flare at 28/0614 from region 1333 (N16W01) and several
low-level flares from region 1324 (N10W59), the largest being
a C1 event at 28/1217. Solar activity is expected to remain Low
over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined gradually
from ~400km/s to ~300km/s. The IMF Bz was mostly neutral. Solar
wind speed is expected to increase due to coronal hole effects
from late 29-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 1 11000111
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33210111
Mawson 4 22010003
Davis 5 22222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1221 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 5 Quiet
30 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region
during the last 24 hours, with early brief Unsettled to Active
periods in Antarctica. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected until
late 29-Oct, when Unsettled periods are likely from coronal hole
effects and possible CME arrivals from late on 30-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 115 About 20% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct 105 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 100 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed over the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected on 29-Oct,
with MUF enhancements easing during 30-31 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 59900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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