[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 3 10:40:38 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 0050UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 1723UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Active Region 1305 (N12W25) produced an M3.9 level flare
peaking at 0037UT. STEREO imagery shows a front-side CME first
visible after 0134UT. This event appears Earth-directed with
an estimated speed of 532km/s. Region 1302 (N16W54) produced
an impulsive M1 level flare at 1723UT. A C7 level flare was observed
in Culgoora H-Alpha imagery in AR 1305 at 2148UT. There were
a few minor C level flares also observed over the UT day. Solar
wind speed declined slowly from 520 to 440 km/s over the UT day.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT with sustained
periods of Southward bias 05-08UT and 19-21UT. Solar wind parameters
should decline day one as the present weak coronal hole wind
stream subsides. Expect possible shock arrivals days two to three
following the flare/CME sequences observed Sep 30-Oct 02. Regions
1302 and 1305 maintain potential for further isolated M to X
class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22322412
Darwin 12 32322413
Townsville 12 32323422
Learmonth 15 22333522
Alice_Springs 10 22322412
Norfolk_Island 9 32322312
Gnangara 11 22232413
Camden 11 22332412
Canberra 11 22323412
Hobart 12 22333412
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie_Island 19 11455401
Casey 15 44332313
Davis 39 34543347
Mawson 40 34333376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 9 3233 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 5 Quiet
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 15 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active to Minor Storm
periods.
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Unsettled 06-09UT
at low latitudes, 06-15UT at mid latitudes and Quiet at other
times. Conditions were mostly Unsettled at high latitudes with
variable Active to Minor Storm intervals. Expect mostly Quiet
conditions day one as the present coronal hole wind stream subsides.
There is a chance of Unsettled to Minor Storm intervals days
two to three due to possible shock arrivals from the CME sequences
observed 30 Sep to 02 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brief depressions to 20% before local dawn observed
at Cocos Islands, Darwin and Townsville. Expect mostly normal
HF propagation conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed
periods Antarctic region throughout the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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