[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 11

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 9 10:55:20 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **
YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    0229UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.5    0400UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M5.3    1044UT  possible   lower  European
  M4.4    1829UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.4    2027UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0    2223UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 155/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99
COMMENT: M-class flares were observed from solar regions 1165, 
1171 during 8 March. A Type II radio sweep was observed in association

with the M1 flare from region 1171. A CME was also observed in 
association with the M1 flare from region 1171 but does not appear 
to be earthward directed. Further M-class flare activity is possible 
from these regions over the next 24 hours. Solar wind speeds 
are presently below 400 km/s with sustained southward IMF of 
approximately 4nT. An increase in solar wind speeds are possible 
later in the UT day of 9 March due to a possible glancing impact 
of the CMEs observed during 7 March from regions 1164 and 1166. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212212
      Darwin               6   21222212
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            5   22212112
      Canberra             4   12212101
      Hobart               5   12212211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2102 3243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar    20    Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
                and possible storm periods later in the UT day. 
10 Mar    15    Unsettled to active 
11 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 8 March and 
is current for interval 9-10 March. Geomagnetic activity should 
be mostly quiet for the first half of the UT day of 9 March with 
increased activity possible later in the UT day of 9 March should 
the Earth receive a glancing blow from the CMEs observed on 7 
March. The anicipated increase in geomagnetic activity should 
decrease into 10 March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 03 2011 0115UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor(PCA)
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions were observed at high 
latitudes during 8 March due to a Polar Cap Absorption event. 
Some slightly degraded conditions may be observed during 10 March 
in response to anticipated mildly increased geomagnetic activity 
on 9 March. SWFs possible for 9 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar    50    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Mar    35    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
11 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 8 March 
and is current for interval 8-9 March (SWFs) . Significantly 
degraded conditions were observed at high latitudes during 8 
March due to a Polar Cap Absorption event. Mostly normal to good 
conditions should be observed for 9 March. Some slightly degraded 
conditions may be observed during 10 March in response to anticipated 
mildly increased geomagnetic activity on 9 March. SWFs possible 
for 9 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this PROMOTIONAL MATERIAL please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:"UNSUBSCRIBE"
To unsubscribe from a mail list service CONTENT you need to go
to http://www.ips.gov.au/Products_and_Services/4/1 and
unsubscribe yourself from the appropriate email list.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list