[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 5 10:51:49 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Soalr activity was at low levels today. Region 1164(N23W14) 
produced today's lagest flare(a C1.7 flare at 1200UT). Solar 
wind speed showed a gradual decline from 640 km/s to nearly 520 
km/s over the last 24 hours indicating a weakening in the solar 
wind stream as the coronal hole gets closer to the western limb. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 4nT through most of 
the day today. Solar wind stream is expected to show a further 
gradual weakeing over the next 24 hours as the coronal effect 
shows further decline. Solar wind stream may again show some 
strengthening on 06 March due an expected arrival of a slow CME 
that was observed on 03 March. Solar activity is expected to 
stay mostly at low levels for the next three days with some
possibility of M-class activity from region 1164 and 1166 (N09E55). 
Region 1166 has shown significant growth both in sunspot count 
as well as area over the last 24 hours. Previously X-flare(s) 
producing region 1158 is due for return to the south-east limb 
around 6 Mar. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22333323
      Darwin              10   22233322
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth           12   22233333
      Canberra             9   12233322
      Hobart              13   23343322
      Casey(Ant)          18   3-433334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   2242 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly quiet to unsettled 
levels today. Due to the effect of the high speed solar wind 
stream from the currently geoeffective coronal hole and a possible 
effect of a slow CME , the geomagnetic activity is expected to 
stay mostly at unsettled levels for the next two days with some 
possibility of isolated active periods during this period. Mostly 
quiet conditions may be expected on the third day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
06 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be observed on mid and high latitude locations 
during the next two days due to an expected continued rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF conditions may 
show some improvements on the third day as the geomagnetic activity 
is expected to weaken around that time. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Mar    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% over the UT
day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
06 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
07 Mar    35    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to significant MUF depressions were observed across 
Aus/NZ region today due to enhanced geomagnetic activity levels. 
Some periods of MUF enhancements were also observed. Minor to 
mild degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be 
expected for this region for the next two days as the geomagnetic 
activity is expected to stay relatively higher for two more days. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the third day 
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to show significant decline 
by then. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 611 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:   228000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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