[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 21 10:31:26 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan:  82/23

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Region 1147 (N24E09) was the source of a number of
sub-flares over the period. There is the slight possibility of a
C-class event from this region. ACE data show the north-south IMF
ranged between +/-4 nT with the solar wind decreasing from 470 to
420 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly
disturbed on days two and three due to the effects of a coronal
hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21232121
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            6   21122222
      Canberra             4   10132111
      Hobart               5   11232111
      Casey(Ant)           8   44432131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1222 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan     5    Quiet 
22 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period 
                likely. 
23 Jan     6    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: The effects of a coronal hole are expected to increase 
activity days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Poor-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
22 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
23 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Jan     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 25-40% depressions
      11-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 15-40% 00-21 UT then near predicted monthly
      values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 20-40% depressions
      17-21 UT. No data for Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
      00-06 at Brisbane, Canberra, Norfolk Is. and Sydney.
      Depressions to 20% 20-23 UT at Brisbane, to 35% 11-21
      UT at Norfolk Is. and to 30% 15-21 UT at Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      00-08, 14-18 UT at Macquarie Is. and 10-14, 19-20 UT
      at Mawson.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
22 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
23 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 18 January 
and is current for interval 19-21 January. Occasional seasonal 
sporadic E may degrade communications. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 494 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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