[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 17 10:33:03 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B class events from new region 1147 (N24E67). Solar
wind speed was 460km/s at 00T before falling to 400km/s at 09UT
and then increased to be 480km/s at the time of this report.
Solar wind speed is expected to be slightly elevated over the
next days due to the influence of a mild south pole centred coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream. IMF Bz ranged between +/-3nT
over the UT day with no sustained southward periods. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days with the chance
of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22113221
Darwin 8 22123322
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 22113321
Canberra 5 12103211
Hobart 6 22103221
Casey(Ant) 13 34332232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1211 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the Australian/NZ
region during the last 24 hours with Unsettled periods for mid
to high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected over the next
2 days with possible Unsetteld to Active periods for mid to high
latidues. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 19Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
18 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed across the
Australian/NZ region during the last 24 hours. Depressed MUFs
during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ regions and
IPS Cocos Is. station. Enhanced conditions for Northern AUS
regions during local day and night. Normal ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Depressed MUF's of ~20% possible for low
to mid latitudes for the next 3 days with possible disturbed
periods for Antarctic regions on 17Jan-18Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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