[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 15 10:41:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
long duration C1.6 xray event off the northeast limb that peaked
at 0330UT (visible in LASCO C3 imagery from 0430UT) from old
region 1138 that is expected to rotate onto the visible disc
within the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed ranged between
450km/s-550km/s influenced by the current geoeffective coronal hole.
IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day with no sustained
southward periods. Solar wind speed is expected to decline
gradually over the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to be
Low to Very Low over the next 3 days with the chance of further
C-class activity from returning region 1138.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 32322322
Darwin 6 22212222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 8 22322222
Hobart 9 22322322
Casey(Ant) 17 4---3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2100 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan 7 Quiet
17 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the Australian
region during the last 24 hours with Active periods for high
latitudes between 03-09UT. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours as the effects of the current
geoeffective coronal hole subside. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
for 16Jan-17Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
16 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
17 Jan 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed again over the last
24 hours for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions with depressed MUFs
of ~25% during local night and some enhanced periods during local
day. Depressed conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions during
local day. Periods of depressed MUFs and disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. MUFs depressions of 10%-30% are
expected for the next 2 days for low to mid latitudes and isolated
disturbed periods for high latitudes. Increased MUFs expected
from 17Jan for low to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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