[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 11 10:55:56 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Current active region 1140 did not undergo any any significant 
change in size or complexity and was the source of some minor 
B-class events. The solar wind speed fell from 600km/s at 00UT 
to be 500km/s at the time of this report. IMF Bz fluctuated between 
+/-3nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very 
Low over the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32232122
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Canberra             4   21222011
      Hobart               5   22222011
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--43232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1200 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jan     6    Quiet 
13 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed in the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed has begun to 
decline, falling from 600km/s to 500km/s while Bz fluctuated 
between +/-3nT. Unsettled to Active conditions observed at higher 
latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for the next 
24 hours with mostly Quiet conditions for 12Jan-13Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
12 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jan    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Jan    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Jan    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for the Australian/NZ 
region over the last 24 hours. Depressed MUFs of ~20% during 
local night for Northern AUS regions while IPS Cocos Is station 
observed enhanced MUFs during local day and night. Mostly normal 
ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with variable 
MUFs for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 592 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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