[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 5 10:49:14 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low in the last 24 hours with three 
active regions 1140, 1141 and 1142 on the disc. All three have 
releatively simple magnetic configurations with low probaility 
of major X-ray flares. Both AR1141 and 1142 produced C1 flares 
and numerous B flares. The disturbance in solar wind and IMF 
calmed from 06UT and Vsw has not yet risen from the coronal hole 
due to be geoffective in the next 1-2 days. Bz was mildly southwards 
for the rest of the day but only marginal for merging with the 
geomagnetic field. There is a large filament in the southern 
hemisphere that may be geoeffective if it rapidly collapses and 
produces a shock. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122211
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           6   22122311
      Canberra             4   12121211
      Hobart               5   22122211
      Casey(Ant)           6   ---22221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0000 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan     6    Quiet 
06 Jan     6    Quiet 
07 Jan     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet levels at mid and low 
latitudes. Polar latitudes were Unsettled to Active due to strong 
IMF and solar wind speed fluctuations which have now settled. 
Mostly Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 1-2 days 
before an upcoming high-speed solar wind speed stream from a 
coronal hole due becomes geoeffective and then Unsettled with 
sporadic Active levels are expected for 1-2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
06 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
07 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
COMMENT: Moderate geomagnetic disturbance from a coronal hole 
high-speed solar wind stream due in 1-2 days that will have greatest 
effect on th eionosphere at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jan    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan    30    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jan    20    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
07 Jan    20    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF frequencies were overall near monthly medians across 
the region, albeit with some variations, strong at equatorial 
latitudes and some dusk enhancemments at mid-latitudes. Near 
median MUFs may be expected for the next 1-2 days before mild 
geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole may suppress frequencies 
on day 2. Sporadic E-layer activity re-occurred but less extensive 
and intense than yesterday, Similar Sporadic-E may continue over 
the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    49200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list