[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 2 10:26:38 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today. Solar wind speed
ranged from 300 to 350 km/s over the last 24 hours. The
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component mostly varied
between +/- 4nT during most parts of the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next three
days with some possibility of isolated C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22112101
Darwin 5 221121--
Townsville 3 11211111
Learmonth 2 110-----
Canberra 3 1211210-
Hobart 4 12222101
Casey(Ant) 7 3--2220-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1112 1200
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 3 Quiet
03 Jan 3 Quiet
04 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today.
Mostly Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions with minor MUF enhancements
were observed during the last 24 hours on most locations. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 30 near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 30 near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions were observed today
with isolated periods of minor MUF enhancements on most
locations. Nearly normal HF conditions may be expected for
the next 3 days. Periods of partial to complete blanketing
by Sporadic E-layer were observed at some low and mid latitude
locations today. Similar effect of Sporadic E-layer may
continue to be observed over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 50100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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