[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 11 issued 2348 UT on 30 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 31 10:48:04 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0309UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region
1389(S22E44), the most active on the disc produced several C-class
flares and an M1 flare at 0309UT. Solar wind speed remained low
at between 360-400 Km/s. the IMF Bz stayed close to 0nT up to
around 09UT then fluctuated between +/-10nT for most parts of
the remaining UT day. Solar activity is expected to stay mostly
at low levels for the next 3 days with some possibility of M-class
activity from region 1389. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
at low levels for the next 3 days. There may be some possibility
of strengthening in solar wind stream due to a southern polar
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22211233
Darwin 10 22222333
Townsville 10 22222333
Learmonth 9 22212333
Norfolk Island 6 12211223
Camden 5 12211222
Canberra 5 12211222
Hobart 8 22211233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 11000322
Casey 14 24422233
Mawson 15 44222333
Davis 15 34332333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1233 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 7 Quiet
01 Jan 7 Quiet
02 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic disturbance was less than anticipated. The
Australian regional geomagnetic field remained at Quiet to Unsettled
levels over the last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to be
mostly Quiet over the next 3 days with a chance of Unsettled
periods due to possible effects from a southern polar coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Briefly depressed MUFs observed at times in most regions.
Periods of spread-F observed mainly local night in S Aus/NZ regions.
Otherwise propagation conditions mostly near predicted monthly
values. Similar conditions may be expected over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 13.6 p/cc Temp: 91800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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