[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 11 issued 2326 UT on 06 Dec 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 7 10:26:39 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 151/106


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. 
One C-6 flare was observed from region 1363(S22W20) at 
2325UT/05 December. Ace solar wind data was not available 
for the whole day. The limited data indicates the solar 
wind speed variations from 340 km/s down to 290 km/s during 
the day. The Bz component of IMF stayed close to the normal 
value (between 0/-3nT) for the period for which the data 
are available. Solar activity is expected to be Low for 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11001111
      Darwin               5   22112212
      Townsville           5   22112221
      Learmonth            3   21002111
      Norfolk Island       2   11001112
      Camden               2   11101111
      Canberra             1   10001001
      Hobart               1   11001101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                7   23311121
      Mawson               2   10001122
      Davis                8   22222232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec     3    Quiet
08 Dec     3    Quiet
09 Dec     3    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
Quiet during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may 
be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF 
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Dec   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec   145    About 25% above predicted monthly values
08 Dec   145    About 25% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec   145    About 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed today with periods of 
strong sporadic E-layers at low and some mid latitude locations. 
Normal HF conditions with about 25% enhancements in MUFs may 
be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    35200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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