[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 11 issued 2331 UT on 04 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 5 10:31:34 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the past day with the most
significant flare being a C4.8 from region 1362(S22E16) at 1615UT.
Some CME activity was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery in the few
hours after this flare, however analysis of STEREO imagery suggests
these ejections are unrelated and not geoeffective. The IPS Culgoora
Solar Observatory reports that region 1363(S22E07) continues
to grow in size and complexity. All other regions are largely
stable. Sufficient data should be available by tomorrows report.
Solar wind conditions were normal. Solar activity is expected
to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days, with some isolated
M class flares possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 5 22122112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22212101
Norfolk Island 4 11211112
Camden 4 22211011
Canberra 2 11111001
Hobart 4 22221101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 21222100
Casey 15 44432212
Mawson 10 43223112
Davis 13 43333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2123 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 5 Quiet
06 Dec 5 Quiet
07 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet. Isolated Active periods were observed in Antarctic stations
in the early part of the day. Conditions are expected to be Quiet
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: No disruptions to HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Dec 140 About 30% above predicted monthly values
07 Dec 150 About 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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